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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Year : 2017  |  Volume : 22  |  Issue : 1  |  Page : 1

Development of a scoring system using a statistical model to predict cure status in patients with cutaneous leishmaniasis


1 Skin and Stem Cell Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran; Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
2 Skin Diseases and Leishmaniasis Research Center, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
3 Skin and Stem Cell Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
4 Skin Diseases and Leishmaniasis Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran

Correspondence Address:
Sayed Mohsen Hosseini
Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Skin Diseases and Leishmaniasis Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan
Iran
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Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None


DOI: 10.4103/1735-1995.199095

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Background: The present study was performed to develop a scoring system for predicting cure status in patients with cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL). Materials and Methods: This study included 199 patients with CL from Skin Diseases and Leishmaniasis Research Center (Isfahan, Iran). Data were collected as longitudinal in each visit of patients. We applied ordinal logistic generalized estimating equation regression to predict score on this correlated data. To evaluate the fitted model, split sample validation method was applied. SPSS software was used for data analysis. Results: The regression coefficients of the fitted model were used to calculate score for cure status. Based on split-sample validation method, overall correct classification rate was 82%. Conclusion: This study suggested a scoring system predict cure status in CL patients based on clinical characteristics. Using this method, score for a CL patient is easily obtained by physicians or health workers.


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